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  • Get out of the darkest hour! Big rebound in June! In the first half of the year, the foreign trade report card was released. Which products sold well?

Get out of the darkest hour! Big rebound in June! In the first half of the year, the foreign trade report card was released. Which products sold well?

19-07-2022

"China's economy is a sea, not a small pond." The same is true of China's foreign trade. Although local epidemics have occurred in some parts of the country since the beginning of this year, foreign trade has been affected to a certain extent in a short period of time, but judging from the data just released, the growth of foreign trade in the first half of this year has rebounded significantly, showing strong resilience and competitiveness. According to customs statistics, the total value of my country's import and export of goods in the first half of this year was 19.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. Among them, exports were 11.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%; imports were 8.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%.


 


In May and June, the downward trend of the growth rate in April was quickly reversed. In RMB terms, the export growth rate in June was even as high as 22%! This increase is achieved on the basis of the high base in June 2021, which is not easy!


 


01In terms of trading partners:


In the first half of the year, China's imports and exports to ASEAN, the European Union and the United States were 2.95 trillion yuan, 2.71 trillion yuan and 2.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6%, 7.5% and 11.7% respectively. During the same period, my country’s imports and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” and RCEP trading partners increased by 17.8% and 5.6% respectively. At the same time, the vitality of foreign trade operators was further enhanced. In the first half of the year, there were 506,000 foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance in my country, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%.


The proportion of general trade imports and exports continued to increase. In the first half of the year, my country's general trade import and export was 12.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.1%, accounting for 64.2% of my country's total foreign trade import and export, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year.


 


02In terms of export products:


In the first six months, my country's export of mechanical and electrical products reached 6.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6%, accounting for 56.7% of the total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts and components were 770.06 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8%; mobile phones were 434.00 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1%; automobiles were 143.60 billion yuan, an increase of 51.1%.


During the same period, the export of labor-intensive products was 1.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total export value. Among them, textiles were 490.50 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3%; clothing and clothing accessories were 516.65 billion yuan, an increase of 11.2%; plastic products were 337.17 billion yuan, an increase of 14.9%.


According to customs data, in the first half of the year, my country's exports of electrical equipment, integrated circuits, automobiles and other mechanical and electrical products increased by 24.8%, 16.4%, and 51.1% respectively, and exports of labor-intensive products such as textiles and clothing, plastic products, and shoes increased by 10.8% and 14.9% respectively. , 31.4%; in the first half of the year, my country's imports of copper materials, basic organic chemicals, integrated circuits and other intermediate products increased by 16.2%, 7.9% and 5.5% respectively.


In addition, 30.968 million tons of steel were exported, an increase of 29.7%; 11.709 million tons of refined oil, an increase of 0.8%; and 2.793 million tons of fertilizers, a decrease of 16.3%.


It is worth noting that in the first half of this year, my country's auto exports entered the fast lane and are increasingly approaching Japan, the largest auto exporter. In the first half of the year, my country exported a total of 1.218 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 47.1%. In June, auto companies exported 249,000 vehicles, hitting a record high, an increase of 1.8% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 57.4%.


Among them, 202,000 new energy vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times. In addition, with the great strides of new energy vehicles going abroad, Europe is becoming a major incremental market for China's auto exports. According to customs data, last year, China's auto exports to Europe increased by 204%. Among the top ten exporters of new energy vehicles in China, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and other developed countries are at the forefront.


On the other hand, the downward pressure on exports of textiles and clothing has increased. Among the main garment export products, the growth momentum of knitted garment exports is stable and good, and the export of woven garments is characterized by a decrease in volume and an increase in price. At present, among the top four markets for Chinese apparel exports, Chinese apparel exports to the United States and the European Union have grown steadily, while exports to Japan have declined.


 


According to the research and judgment of Minsheng Securities, the export performance of four types of industrial products in the second half of the year was better.


One is the export of machinery and equipment. Expansion of capital spending in overseas manufacturing and extractive industries requires the import of equipment and components from China.


The second is the export of means of production. China's means of production are mainly exported to ASEAN. In the future, the continuous restoration of ASEAN production will drive the export of Chinese means of production. In addition, the price of means of production has a strong correlation with energy costs, and strong energy prices in the future will push up the export value of means of production.


The third is the export of the automobile industry chain. At present, the current situation of the automobile industry in overseas countries is in short supply, and it is expected that China's exports of complete vehicles and auto parts are not bad.


The fourth is the export of overseas new energy industry chain. In the second half of the year, the demand for new energy investment overseas, especially in Europe, will continue to be booming.


 


 


Zhou Junzhi, chief macro analyst at Minsheng Securities, believes that the biggest advantage of China's exports is the entire industry chain. A complete industrial chain means that overseas demand - whether it is residents' consumption demand, travel demand, or enterprise production demand and investment demand, China can produce and export.


She said that the decline in overseas durable goods consumption does not mean that exports have weakened at the same frequency. Compared with the consumption of durable goods, we should pay more attention to the export of intermediate goods and capital goods this year. At present, industrial production in many countries has not recovered to the level before the epidemic, and the repair of overseas production is likely to continue throughout the second half of the year. During this period, China's exports of production equipment parts and production materials will continue to increase.


And foreign trade people who are concerned about orders have gone overseas to talk about customers in person. At 10:00 am on July 10th, Ningbo Lishe International Airport, carrying Ding Yandong and other 36 Ningbo foreign trade people, on the MU7101 flight, flew directly from Ningbo to Budapest, Hungary. On July 21, there will be a second batch of foreign trade enterprise personnel on board. Business personnel chartered flights from Ningbo to Milan, Italy.


At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the international environment have become more severe and complex. my country's foreign trade development is still facing some unstable and uncertain factors, and there is still a lot of pressure to maintain stability and improve quality. However, it should also be noted that the fundamentals of my country's economy with strong resilience, sufficient potential and long-term improvement have not changed. With the implementation of the country's package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, and the orderly progress of resumption of work and production, my country's foreign trade is expected to continue to maintain steady growth.


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